Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions.

Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1,2, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management-if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic-would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

Temperature reconstruction and volcanic eruption signal from tree-ring width and maximum latewood density over the past 304 years in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

This study presents a 304-year mean July-October maximum temperature reconstruction for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on both tree-ring width and maximum latewood density data. The reconstruction explained 58% of the variance in July-October maximum temperature during the calibration period (1958-2005). On the decadal scale, we identified two prominent cold periods during AD 1801-1833 and 1961-2003 and two prominent warm periods during AD 1730-1800 and 1928-1960, which are consistent with other reconstructions from the nearby region. Based on the reconstructed temperature series and volcanic eruption chronology, we found that most extreme cold years were in good agreement with major volcanic eruptions, such as 1816 after the Tambora eruption in 1815. Also, clusters of volcanic eruptions probably made the 1810s the coldest decade in the past 300 years. Our results indicated that fingerprints of major volcanic eruptions can be found in the reconstructed temperature records, while the responses of regional climate to these eruption events varied in space and time in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

An improved reconstruction of May-June precipitation using tree-ring data from western Turkey and its links to volcanic eruptions.

We developed a high quality reconstruction of May-June precipitation for the interior region of southwestern Turkey using regional tree-ring data calibrated with meteorological data from Burdur. In this study, three new climate sensitive black pine chronologies were built. In addition to new chronologies, four previously published black pine chronologies were used for the reconstruction. Two separate reconstructions were developed. The first reconstruction used all site chronologies over the common interval AD 1813-2004. The second reconstruction used four of the chronologies with a common interval AD 1692-2004. R² values of the reconstructions were 0.64 and 0.51 with RE values of 0.63 and 0.51, respectively. During the period AD 1692-1938, 41 dry and 48 wet events were found. Very dry years occurred in AD 1725, 1814, 1851, 1887, 1916, and 1923, while very wet years occurred in AD 1736, 1780, 1788, 1803, and 1892. The longest dry period was 16 years long between 1860 and 1875. We then explored relationships between the reconstructed rainfall patterns and major volcanic eruptions, and discovered that wetter than normal years occurred during or immediately after the years with the largest volcanic eruptions.

The epidemiology of extreme hiking injuries in volcanic environments.

The objective of this review was to summarize the epidemiological literature for extreme hikers in volcanic environments and describe the incidence, nature and severity of injuries, the factors contributing to the injuries, and strategies for preventing injuries. Due to the relative newness of extreme hiking in volcanic environments, there are only a small handful of studies addressing the topic. Moreover, these studies are primarily focused on extreme hikers in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. These studies found that the majority of extreme hikers in volcanic environments are inexperienced and unfamiliar with the potential hazards present in volcanic environments. The studies found that upper respiratory irritation resulting from exposure to volcanic gases and dehydration and scrapes, abrasions, lacerations, and thermal burns to the extremities were common injuries. The severity of the injuries ranged from simple on-site treat-and-release incidents to more severe incidents and even death. This review reveals a need for well-designed epidemiologic research from volcanic destinations outside of Hawaii that identify the nature and severity of injuries along with the factors contributing to injury incidents. There is also a demonstrated need for studies identifying preventive measures that reduce both the occurrence and severity of extreme hiking incidents in volcanic environments.

Explosive volcanism on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge, Arctic Ocean.

Roughly 60% of the Earth's outer surface is composed of oceanic crust formed by volcanic processes at mid-ocean ridges. Although only a small fraction of this vast volcanic terrain has been visually surveyed or sampled, the available evidence suggests that explosive eruptions are rare on mid-ocean ridges, particularly at depths below the critical point for seawater (3,000 m). A pyroclastic deposit has never been observed on the sea floor below 3,000 m, presumably because the volatile content of mid-ocean-ridge basalts is generally too low to produce the gas fractions required for fragmenting a magma at such high hydrostatic pressure. We employed new deep submergence technologies during an International Polar Year expedition to the Gakkel ridge in the Arctic Basin at 85 degrees E, to acquire photographic and video images of 'zero-age' volcanic terrain on this remote, ice-covered ridge. Here we present images revealing that the axial valley at 4,000 m water depth is blanketed with unconsolidated pyroclastic deposits, including bubble wall fragments (limu o Pele), covering a large (>10 km(2)) area. At least 13.5 wt% CO(2) is necessary to fragment magma at these depths, which is about tenfold the highest values previously measured in a mid-ocean-ridge basalt. These observations raise important questions about the accumulation and discharge of magmatic volatiles at ultraslow spreading rates on the Gakkel ridge and demonstrate that large-scale pyroclastic activity is possible along even the deepest portions of the global mid-ocean ridge volcanic system.

Long-term eruptive activity at a submarine arc volcano.

Three-quarters of the Earth's volcanic activity is submarine, located mostly along the mid-ocean ridges, with the remainder along intraoceanic arcs and hotspots at depths varying from greater than 4,000 m to near the sea surface. Most observations and sampling of submarine eruptions have been indirect, made from surface vessels or made after the fact. We describe here direct observations and sampling of an eruption at a submarine arc volcano named NW Rota-1, located 60 km northwest of the island of Rota (Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). We observed a pulsating plume permeated with droplets of molten sulphur disgorging volcanic ash and lapilli from a 15-m diameter pit in March 2004 and again in October 2005 near the summit of the volcano at a water depth of 555 m (depth in 2004). A turbid layer found on the flanks of the volcano (in 2004) at depths from 700 m to more than 1,400 m was probably formed by mass-wasting events related to the eruption. Long-term eruptive activity has produced an unusual chemical environment and a very unstable benthic habitat exploited by only a few mobile decapod species. Such conditions are perhaps distinctive of active arc and hotspot volcanoes.